Strategy & Terms Guide

Everything you need to understand the Stoxly reports — Weinstein stages, options strategies, and key metrics.

Weinstein Market Cycle Stages
What are the 4 Weinstein Stages?

Stan Weinstein's framework classifies every stock into one of 4 phases based on its price relative to the 30-week moving average (30WMA) and the slope of that MA. The MA acts as the dividing line between bull and bear phases.

Price │ ② Advancing │ ╱‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾╲ ③ Topping │ ╱ ╲__________ │_____╱ ① Basing ╲ ④ Declining │ ╲___________ └──────────────────────────────────────────── Time ←─────── 30-Week Moving Average ──────→
StageBadgeMA DirectionPrice vs MATranslation
1 — BasingBasingFlat (±0.5%)Near MASellers exhausted, buyers accumulating quietly
2 — AdvancingAdvancingRising (>+0.5%)>2% aboveUptrend confirmed — the only stage Weinstein said "just buy"
3 — ToppingToppingFlattening / rolling overChoppyUptrend losing steam, smart money distributing
4 — DecliningDecliningFalling (<−0.5%)>2% belowDowntrend confirmed — avoid entirely
Basing   Stage 1 — What it means

The stock has stopped falling and is trading sideways. The 30WMA is flat — neither rising nor declining meaningfully. Sellers are exhausted; patient buyers are quietly accumulating a position.

Signal thresholds used here: MA slope between −0.5% and +0.5% over 4 weeks; price at or slightly above the MA.

★ Breakout candidate — a Stage 1 stock trading within 5% of its 52-week high is flagged with a star ★. This is the highest-probability setup: price is compressing right under resistance, ready to break out into Stage 2.

Options: CSP Wheel — Ideal for selling cash-secured puts below the base. You collect premium while waiting for the breakout. If assigned, you buy a fundamentally strong stock at a discount.

Example: A stock that fell from $100 → $40, now trading $38–$42 for 3+ months with flat volume and a flat MA.

Advancing   Stage 2 — What it means

The stock has broken above a rising 30WMA. Price is clearly above the MA and the MA itself is heading higher. This is the Weinstein "buy zone" — the stock has proven its uptrend with both price action and a rising trend line.

Signal thresholds used here: Price > 30WMA by more than 2%; MA slope > +0.5% over 4 weeks.

Options: CSP CC Wheel — All three strategies work here. CSPs and Wheel benefit from the bullish trend reducing assignment risk. Covered Calls on existing holdings generate income without fighting the trend.

Example: NVDA after its 2023 AI breakout — relentlessly above a rising 30WMA for over a year.

Topping   Stage 3 — What it means

The uptrend is losing steam. The 30WMA is flattening or beginning to roll over. Price becomes choppy — sometimes above the MA, sometimes below. This is the distribution phase where institutional investors sell to retail buyers attracted by recent performance.

Signal thresholds used here: Doesn't qualify as Stage 2 (MA no longer rising or price slipping below) and doesn't qualify as Stage 4 (not yet a confirmed downtrend). Catch-all for the transition zone.

Options: CC only — Covered Calls on shares you already own accelerate your exit at a higher strike while collecting premium. Do not initiate new CSP or Wheel positions — getting assigned into a topping stock means buying right before a potential Stage 4 decline.

Example: A stock that ran from $20 → $80, now trading $75–$85 with increasing volatility and a flattening MA. QBTS is currently here.

Declining   Stage 4 — What it means

Downtrend confirmed. Price is clearly below a falling 30WMA. The MA itself is pointing lower. This is the most dangerous phase — rallies within Stage 4 are typically short-lived and eventually fail.

Signal thresholds used here: Price > 2% below 30WMA; MA slope < −0.5% over 4 weeks.

Options: No strategies shown. Never sell puts on a Stage 4 stock — you'd collect small premium while risking assignment into a falling knife. Exit any existing positions and wait for Stage 1 to form.

Example: Any stock in a confirmed bear market — lower highs, lower lows, price below a declining MA.

Options Strategies
CSP   Cash-Secured Put — How it works

You sell a put option on a stock you'd be happy to own, and set aside enough cash to buy 100 shares at the strike price. In return, you collect premium upfront.

Outcome at expiryWhat happensYour result
Stock stays above strikePut expires worthlessKeep 100% of premium. Repeat.
Stock drops below strikeYou're assigned — buy 100 shares at strikeOwn shares at a discount (strike − premium = your real cost)

Example using ON @ $109.61:

Sell 1 CSP: Strike $100 · Jun 18 · 27 DTE · Mid $2.15 Cash secured: $10,000 (100 shares × $100) Premium: $215 collected upfront Scenario A — ON stays above $100: Put expires worthless → keep $215 Return: $215 / $10,000 × (365/27) = 29.1% annualized Scenario B — ON drops below $100: Assigned at $100, but real cost = $100 − $2.15 = $97.85 You own a Stage 2, score-55 stock at a discount → move to Covered Call
Rule of thumb: Only sell puts on stocks you'd genuinely want to own. The strike is your "I'd buy it here" price. The premium is your compensation for the commitment.
CC   Covered Call — How it works

You own 100 shares and sell a call option above the current price. You collect premium immediately. If the stock rises past the strike, your shares get called away (sold) at the strike price — which is fine, since you set it above your cost.

Outcome at expiryWhat happensYour result
Stock stays below strikeCall expires worthlessKeep premium + still own shares. Sell next month's call.
Stock rises above strikeShares sold at strikeProfit = (strike − cost basis) + premium collected

Example using ON @ $109.61 (already own shares):

Sell 1 CC: Strike $115 · Jun 18 · 27 DTE · Mid $8.22 Cost basis: $97.85 (from CSP assignment above) Scenario A — ON stays below $115: Call expires → keep $822. New cost basis = $97.85 − $8.22 = $89.63 Annualized yield: 101.4% Scenario B — ON rises above $115 (called away): Sell at $115 + $8.22 premium = effective exit $123.22 Gain: ($123.22 − $97.85) / $97.85 = +25.9% in 27 days
WHEEL   Wheel Strategy — The full loop

The Wheel combines CSP and CC into a repeating income loop. It works best on Basing or Advancing stocks with liquid options and high IV.

① Sell CSP → collect premium │ ├─ Expires worthless → keep premium, sell next CSP ↺ │ └─ Assigned (buy shares at strike − premium = cost basis) │ ② Sell CC → collect more premium, reduce cost basis further │ ├─ Expires worthless → keep premium + shares, sell next CC ↺ │ └─ Called away (sell shares at strike + premium = effective exit) │ Back to cash → ① Sell CSP again

Wheel Tier badges in the report rank candidates by two combined signals:

TierCriteriaMeaning
ACombined yield ≥ 30% AND round-trip ≥ 6%Both income and capital gain are strong
BCombined yield ≥ 20% OR round-trip ≥ 4%At least one signal is strong
CPasses base filter but below B thresholdsModerate — still worth screening

Round-trip % = total gain from entering the CSP to exiting via CC, expressed as a % of the put strike (your capital at risk). Higher is better.

How do I book profit on an options position?

Three approaches, in order of preference:

1 — Close early at 50% profit (recommended)

Buy back the option at half the price you sold it for. If you sold a put for $2.00 and it's now worth $0.90–$1.00, close it. You capture ~50% of max profit in far less than 50% of the time (theta decay accelerates). This frees capital for the next trade.

2 — Let it expire worthless

Hold to expiry and collect 100% of the premium. Higher reward but ties up capital longer and leaves you exposed to late-cycle risk (a sudden gap-down in the final week).

3 — Close at 21 DTE

Regardless of profit level, close any position when it reaches 21 days to expiration. Inside 21 DTE, gamma risk increases sharply — a sudden move can wipe out weeks of theta gains overnight.

Common rule: "50% profit OR 21 DTE — whichever comes first." This balances capture rate against time risk.
Key Terms & Metrics
OTM % — Out of The Money

How far the option strike is from the current stock price, expressed as a percentage.

StrategyOTM directionFormula
CSPStrike is below current price(price − strike) / price × 100
CCStrike is above current price(strike − price) / price × 100

The screener targets 5–9% OTM — far enough to have a buffer against assignment, close enough to still collect meaningful premium. A deeper OTM strike is safer but yields less.

DTE — Days To Expiration

Calendar days until the option expires. The screener targets 21–45 DTE, with the ideal being ~30 DTE. This is the "theta sweet spot" — time value decay (theta) accelerates most in the final 30 days, which benefits option sellers.

DTE rangeCharacteristic
> 45 DTESlow decay, premium decays slowly — less efficient for sellers
21–45 DTE ✓Sweet spot — accelerating decay, liquid strikes available
< 21 DTEGamma risk increases — sudden moves can cause large P&L swings
IV — Implied Volatility

The market's forward-looking estimate of how much the stock will move, expressed as an annualized percentage. Derived from option prices via the Black-Scholes model.

High IV (e.g., 80–150%) means fatter premiums — great for option sellers. It typically spikes around earnings, news events, or broad market fear. Selling options during high IV is called "selling premium into elevated IV."

Low IV (e.g., 15–30%) means thin premiums — the market expects little movement. Less attractive for sellers.

IV crush risk: IV drops sharply after an earnings announcement. If you hold an option through earnings, the premium collapses even if the stock doesn't move much. The screener flags earnings within 21 days with ⚠.
Mid Price, Bid, Ask

Options trade with a spread between what buyers will pay (Bid) and what sellers ask (Ask). The Mid Price is the midpoint: (bid + ask) / 2.

In practice you'll fill somewhere between the mid and the ask when selling. The screener uses mid price for all yield calculations as the realistic fill estimate. It rejects options where ask > 4× bid (absurdly wide spread = illiquid, don't trade it).

Break-Even
StrategyFormulaMeaning
CSPstrike − premiumStock must fall below this before you lose money
CCstrike + premiumEffective exit price — above this you'd have made more just holding

For CSP, the break-even is displayed in green in the report — it shows your true cost basis if assigned. For CC, displayed in blue as the effective sell price.

Annualized Yield

Normalizes premium income to a yearly rate so you can compare options with different DTE on equal terms.

Ann. Yield = (premium / basis) × (365 / DTE) × 100

basis = strike price for CSP (cash you put at risk); current stock price for CC.

Example: $2.15 premium on a $100 strike with 27 DTE → 2.15/100 × 365/27 × 100 = 29.1%

Yield badges: ≥ 24% 12–24% < 12%

Open Interest (OI)

The total number of outstanding option contracts for a given strike and expiry. It's a liquidity indicator — higher OI means more active trading, tighter spreads, and easier entry/exit.

The screener requires OI > 0 and a valid bid to ensure you can actually trade the option. For small-cap or custom stocks with thin options markets, OI may be low — widen your limit orders accordingly.

Earnings Risk ⚠

An earnings announcement within the option's expiry window is a major risk for option sellers. Stocks can gap 10–30% on earnings, blowing through a strike that seemed safely OTM.

StrategyEarnings window flagged
CSP / CC< 21 days to earnings
Wheel< 30 days (stricter)

Flagged positions show ⚠ 12d. Either avoid these entirely or close before the earnings date.

Combined Yield & Round-Trip % (Wheel)

Combined Yield = average of put annualized yield and call annualized yield. Represents the blended income rate across both legs of the Wheel cycle.

Round-Trip % = total percentage gain from entering via CSP to exiting via CC:

round_trip = (exit_price − cost_basis) / cost_basis × 100
exit_price = call_strike + call_mid
cost_basis = put_strike − put_mid

This tells you the total return if the full Wheel cycle completes — both premium legs collected and shares called away at the call strike.

Score, Sector, Stage — What they mean in the Options report

Score — the stock's fundamental composite score from 0–90, computed across 9 criteria (C1–C9: cash/debt, revenue/margins, short interest, scalability, shareholder value, MOAT, secular trend, R&D culture, talent). Higher = stronger business.

Sector — the industry group the stock belongs to (Tech, Semis, Healthcare, etc.). Helps you avoid concentrating too many options in the same sector.

Stage — Weinstein stage badge (see above). The screener enforces: CSP/Wheel only in Basing/Advancing, CC also shown in Topping.